Microsoft entered 2025 in a peculiar situation. With only 10 months left until the end of support for its previous operating system, Windows 10, users are in no rush to switch to Windows 11. New statistical data reveals that Windows 10 continues to be the most popular desktop operating system, as reported by The Register.
The increase in Windows 10's market share has surprised analysts. While the hardware requirements of Windows 11 — including the need for a modern processor and TPM 2.0 — are well known, the rise in Windows 10's popularity suggests other reasons.
Analysts speculate that some users tried Windows 11 but later reverted to Windows 10 due to dissatisfaction. Another factor may be the widespread presence of devices with pre-installed Windows 10, especially in the corporate sector.
Kieren Jessop, an analyst at Canalys, noted that the increase in Windows 10's share occurred in only a quarter of the 230 countries and regions tracked by Statcounter, but these changes were concentrated in key markets such as the United States. In the U.S., the share of Windows 10 grew from 58% in October 2024 to 67% in December.
Jessop explained this trend by noting that businesses and government agencies prioritize stability, delaying their transition to Windows 11. "It is common practice for businesses to downgrade new devices from Windows 11 to Windows 10 as part of IT infrastructure update cycles," he said. This approach remains popular in government institutions as well. Jessop suggested that a future Trump administration might encourage government device purchases ahead of potential budget cuts.
Free support for Windows 10 will end on October 14, 2025, leaving users with limited options: purchase extended security updates (ESU) or continue using the OS at the risk of encountering unpatched vulnerabilities. Long-Term Servicing Channels (LTSC) for Windows 10 will remain supported after 2025, but they will require reverting to previous versions of the OS.
Microsoft has yet to comment on whether the company will consider extending Windows 10 support or change the hardware requirements for Windows 11 to accelerate its adoption. These requirements, coupled with the slow transition of businesses, may force the company to reconsider its strategy.
Statcounter data, collected from over 5 billion monthly page views, shows a clear trend: Windows 11 is being adopted much more slowly than Microsoft anticipated. Meanwhile, AI-powered PCs, which were supposed to drive sales, have yet to make a significant impact on the market.
With only 10 months left until the end of support for Windows 10, Microsoft will need to make an important decision. The company must address business reluctance and consumer dissatisfaction with Windows 11 — or risk remaining dependent on an outdated operating system for a long time. Whether it will be an extension of Windows 10 support or a revision of Windows 11’s requirements, Microsoft will have to decide by the first half of this year.