Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 6.2% in 2024 compared to 2023. A total of 1.24 billion devices will be shipped by the end of the year. This is stated in a new report by International Data Corporation (IDC).
Smartphones have had two challenging years, with shipments declining in 2022 and 2023. Although an improvement is forecast for 2024, growth in the following years will be modest. The average annual growth rate is estimated to be only 2.6% between 2023 and 2028.
This slow pace is explained by the extended period of support for system updates for modern smartphones and the growing demand for used devices. In addition, according to IDC, generative artificial intelligence, despite its active implementation in various industries, has not yet had a significant impact on demand.
Nabila Popal, senior research director of IDC's Worldwide Mobile Quarterly, believes that generative AI will change the way users use devices. However, in his opinion, smartphones currently do not have AI features that would be really necessary for customers. He notes that so far, only flagship smartphones will have AI functions, but by 2028, 70% of devices will be equipped with AI.
One of the main factors behind the increase in shipments in 2024 is the rapid growth in the share of Android smartphones in many regions, such as China. This year, these smartphones, especially budget models, are showing an increase of 7.6% compared to 2023. At the same time, iPhone growth will be only 0.4%.
Nevertheless, the forecasts for 2025 are polarized. The increase in iPhone shipments in 2025 will be 3.1% compared to 2024. At the same time, Android smartphones will see only 1.7% growth next year.
IDC also notes foldable smartphones. Despite the fact that their market share fell by 7.4% in Q3 2024, in general, such devices will see an increase of 10.5% in 2024. Over the next few years, the share of foldable smartphones will also grow steadily. The compound annual growth rate for the period up to 2028 will be 15.9%.
